The Signals Were There
How community data could have predicted MTG's biggest hit (and flop) — and what it tells us about 2026
In 2025, Wizards of the Coast released two major Universes Beyond sets: Final Fantasy in June and Spider-Man in September. One made $200 million in a single day. The other is still sitting on shelves.
The question: Could store owners have known which was which before placing pre-orders?
The answer: Yes. The signals were visible months in advance. Nobody was aggregating them.
"Lord of the Rings took six months to deliver $200 million of revenue, Final Fantasy took one day, and we left demand on the table," Hasbro CEO Chris Cocks told analysts during the Q2 2025 earnings call.
The Signals: What Reddit Said
The clearest signal was community sentiment at announcement. Here's what people were saying — all of this was public, searchable, and available during the pre-order window:
✓ Final Fantasy (2023-2024 announcements)
✗ Spider-Man (Oct 2024 - Sept 2025)
The Five-Factor Framework
Based on this analysis, we identified five signals that matter most for predicting Universes Beyond performance:
| Factor | Final Fantasy | Spider-Man |
|---|---|---|
| Community Sentiment Reddit reaction at announcement |
Euphoric | Skeptical |
| Collector Culture Does the fanbase buy $100+ hobby products? |
Strong (art books, figures, soundtracks) | Weak (movie tickets, t-shirts) |
| TCG Familiarity Does the audience understand card games? |
Yes (FFTCG exists) | No |
| Fantasy Setting Fit Would the cards look natural in Magic? |
High (swords, magic, monsters) | Low (modern NYC, quips) |
| Fanbase Overlap Pipeline from this IP to MTG players? |
High (RPG gamers → MTG) | Low (movie watchers) |
Backtest: Does This Framework Work?
We applied this framework retroactively to all major Universes Beyond releases:
| Set | Release | Framework Score | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warhammer 40K | Oct 2022 | 43/50 | ✓ Reprinted 3x |
| Lord of the Rings | June 2023 | 38/50 | ✓ $200M in 6 months |
| Doctor Who | Oct 2023 | 22/50 | ~ Below expectations |
| Fallout | Mar 2024 | 39/50 | ✓ Best Commander ever |
| Final Fantasy | June 2025 | 46/50 | ✓ $200M in 1 DAY |
| Spider-Man | Sept 2025 | 15/50 | ✗ Sitting on shelves |
See full methodology: scoring rubrics, raw data, and what didn't correlate →
2026 Predictions: Testing the Framework Live
Four Universes Beyond sets are announced for 2026. Here's what our framework says — recorded now so you can check back:
The Hobbit
Tolkien proven. Fantasy fit perfect. LotR goodwill carries.
Marvel Super Heroes
Better than Spider-Man (Arena support). Still IP mismatch.
TMNT
Nostalgia pull, but modern urban setting doesn't fit MTG.
Star Trek
Strong collectors, but hard sci-fi is fundamental mismatch.
The Store Owner's Dilemma
Here's the problem: store owners don't have time to monitor Reddit, track collector culture, and analyze fanbase demographics. They're running a business.
They get a distributor email that says "Pre-order Spider-Man" with a deadline. They know Spider-Man is popular. They order.
What they needed:
"Community Signal Score: Final Fantasy 9/10, Spider-Man 4/10"
"Key concern: Spider-Man fans don't collect. FF fans already spend $100+ on hobby products. Expect 50-70% lower sell-through."
The data existed. It wasn't aggregated. Stores ordered blind.
That's what we're building.
Sources
Financial Data
- Hasbro Q2 2025 Earnings Call (July 23, 2025) — Chris Cocks quotes on Final Fantasy performance
- Polygon: "Final Fantasy broke LOTR's record in one day" (July 29, 2025)
- TCGPlayer market data for Collector Booster pricing
Community Sentiment
- r/FinalFantasy: "FF coming to MTG" announcement threads (Oct 2022)
- r/mtg: "Is Spider-Man not selling well?" (Oct 2025)
- r/mtg: "How do we feel about Spider-Man reveals?" (July 2025)
- r/magicTCG: Warhammer 40K excitement threads (May 2022)
- r/magicTCG: Doctor Who reception threads (July 2023)
Industry Analysis
- Polygon: Spider-Man analysis and prediction (July 29, 2025)
- MTG Rocks: Best and Worst Selling Sets of 2025
- Wargamer: Warhammer 40K crossover decks sell out (Dec 2022)